Bertrand's box paradox

Created on 2023-05-06T10:09:19-05:00

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One of those things mathematicians use to feel smug about themselves.

Mostly to do with bayesian updating bullshit. The "wrong" analysis is to treat each box selection as an independent variable and evaluate that only two boxes remain and there is only data to say it is the gold-gold or gold-silver box, thus there is a 50% chance of drawing another gold box.

The smug math people decided the correct answer is to sum the probability of drawing the second gold from each box as a bayesian posterior probability.