Talent vs Luck: the role of randomness in success and failure
Created on 2022-04-29T20:03:33-05:00
Meritocracy assumes the wealthiest are the most skilled and qualified workers.
Literature suggests the moderately capable but luckiest are the superwinners.
The wealthiest are only slightly above average in talent; while the most talented are regularly at the bottom.
Distribution of wealth
Distributing research funds uniformly through a population of researchers results in the most prosperity
How the simulator works
Agents are placed in a 2D scene and small circles float around the stage.
Green circles represent positive events.
Red circles represent negative events.
Circles travel randomly (brownian motion) around the stage.
When a circle crosses over an agent they experience the good or bad event.
A good event rolls a die. If the die rolls under the agent's competence their wealth doubles.
A bad event halves the agent's wealth unconditionally.