Weird Fediverse argument about Coins and Clocks

• Postulate: for any binary choice question, flipping a coin will obtain the correct answer 50% of the time.
• Attempted refutation: a coin will not guess a particular hour of the day.

Turns out this is true; the coin is ~50% accurate. I wrote a monte-carlo simulation in Ruby to see who was right.

srand(8008156)

wins=0.0
trials=1000000

trials.times do
    hour = rand(1..24)
    flip = rand(1..2)
    if flip == 1 and hour == 1 then
        wins += 1.0
    elsif flip != 1 and hour != 1 then
        wins += 1.0
    end
end

score = wins / trials
puts score