Fooled By Randomness

• People are bad at understanding how randomness works.
• Luddic fallacy: people turning everything in to dice games.
• Thought experiment at how radiating mice so that only 5% survive does not mean the mice become stronger, but the weaker mice are instead killed. However people may then assume the process has made the population stronger.

TODO Ziph distributions were also mentioned w/ formulas but those are in another archive.

• Ziph: the most common words are also the shortest. Mathematical distribution to determine if there are ten people in class B, then there are a hundred people in class C, a thousand in class D and so forth.

I have used to concoct a simulator that samples product sales performance across multipe months in to the future. It then uses the ziph distribution to estimate (low) odds of any future product being a "super winner" and calculate potential income from this. It's a neat simulator and it belongs in this note.

TODO grab the ziph simulator and document that here